Works In Progress - June 2003

The question of who is next on the Bush administration's list of countries to be militarily attacked has been on the minds of many. The US economy has been in constant decline since 2000. This is mostly due to the overproduction and volatility inherent in the deregulated capitalist structure under which the US operates, and partly due to the competition created by the euro. The ideologues actively involved developing the Bush administration's policies have long desired to go to war with Iraq as a way to implement a "New World Order." This is their answer to securing US economic dominance for the future.

The basic plans for a Pax-Americana are spelled out by the Project for a New American Century, a right-wing think tank established in the mid-90's by numerous figures currently in the Bush administration, in their September 2000 report entitled "Rebuilding America's Defenses." The plan for a Pax-Americana is nothing short of a global empire enforced by overwhelming military strength and presence reaching across the planet. The plan has colonialist implications in its desire to open the world to unchecked economic opportunity by transfering US soldiers into other countries to allow selected transnational corporations to abstract resources from their land to be sold on the international market. These men truly seem to believe they, and only they, can bring democracy to the world through unilateral military force. The plans go well beyond the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Iran

Iraq is the only OPEC nation to make the change to euros for oil, but the euro has begun to gain some momentum within OPEC. Iran, another country in Bush's "axis of evil," has shown interest in moving to the euro. On December 29, 2001, Iran News called for a switch to the euro for all trade by declaring "The euro could become our currency of choice." The same month an Iranian oil ministry official said that Iran "could change [to the euro] in the future." Iran is yet to begin accepting euros for oil but during 2002 the majority of reserve funds in Iran's central bank have been converted into euros. It could only be a matter of time before Iran begins accepting euros for oil.

Occupation of Iraq gives the US an opportunity to increase pressure on Iran using a variety of different methods. One method the US has used is to directly threaten action against Iran. In a speech to American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Colin Powell warned Iran to "end its support for terrorism, including groups violently opposed to Israel" and to "stop pursuing weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them." Powell told CNN in March, "Iran is much further along, with a far more robust nuclear weapons development program than anyone said it had." He may get his wish as Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has already warned Iran that the entrance of Badr Brigade fighters, an armed wing of the Tehran-based Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, would be considered "a threat to coalition forces," reported Reuters March 28. The Bush administration fears they will incite revolt against US forces and the interim government in order to establish Iraq as an "Iranian-style Islamic Republic."

Some believe that the US will respond by invading Iran, living up to the challenges of a British official that said: "Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran." Important US ally, Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, has openly declared to the Times of London last November that he hopes the US will "attack Iran once they are finished with Iraq." It is more likely the US will use cover operations to attempt regime change in Iran. William Kristol a leading neo-conservative strategist, strongly tied to the Bush administration, wrote in The Weekly Standard: "The next great battle will not be, we hope, a military battle for Iran." This explains the Bush administration's ceasefire agreement with the Iraq-based Iranian group, the Mujahideen Khalq (MKO).

The US is likely to assist the MKO with their goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime, even though they are on the US State Department's list of terrorist organizations. Saddam Hussein supported the MKO for over 20 years from inside Iraq after the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. It conducted many attacks on the Iranian military during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) as well as many assassination and bombing operations since.

The US influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) combined with the direct military occupation of Iraq is likely to cause Iran to increase its military procurement, as is already possible if Iran is truly developing a nuclear weapons program. The GCC was established in 1981, bringing together the six monarchies within the Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Middle East scholar Stephen Zunes writes in his book Tinderbox: US Middle East Policy and the Roots of Terrorism, "the stronger the US military presence and the stronger the American strategic ties are with the GCC, the more likely Iran will feel threatened," providing "a convenient excuse by Iran for further militarization." The fact that US troops are currently stationed in all GCC countries and all except possibly Saudi Arabia were used for deployment of troops in the invasion of Iraq, further legitimizes Iran's fear that they may be next.

Venezuela

Another likely OPEC candidate to switch to the euro is Venezuela, whose President Hugo Chavez increasingly threatens to shut American companies out. Venezuela is the fourth largest producer of oil. Since being elected into office Chavez has endured two coup attempts, widely believed in Latin America to have been backed by the US. According to an article by Michael Ruppert, the first failed coup attempt occurred approximately one year after Venezuela's ambassador, Francisco Mieres-Lopez, presented the idea of switching to the euro as their oil currency. This, along with Chavez's initiatives to free OPEC from American influence by strengthening unity among OPEC members, has certainly created concern for those tied to the Bush administration that desire to privatize Venezuela's oil industry. In August 2000, Chavez visited Baghdad where he convinced Iraq of the importance of maintaining OPEC production quotas to prevent a drop in prices. He also visited Iran and Indonesia on the same trip.

Chavez has further angered US officials by engaging in oil barter deals with 13 nations. For example Venezuela gave oil to Cuba in exchange for Cuban health paramedics setting up clinics in rural Venezuela. If other developing nations were to follow Venezuela's example and begin to barter their commodities they could effectively cut the US dollar out of the global monetary cycle. Further angering the US, Venezuela has recently exchanged some of their dollar reserves for euros.

Another interesting aspect to the situation in Venezuela is that in late March, according to a Z Net article by Justin Podur, "the Colombian army is engaging in 'cross-border terrorism', attacking Venezuela." Colombia is the third largest recipient of US military aid in the world, and since the election of right-wing President Alvaro Uribe has begun actively training the Colombian military to fight guerrilla insurgents. Colombian analyst Hector Mondragon among others has stressed for years that Colombia's civil war will be used to militarize the region, targeting Venezuela in particular. Colombian officials have accused Chavez of harboring guerrilla fighters as justification for their cross-border attacks. Chavez's response was to bomb an area along the border, where he said he "detected the presence of a group." These raids could be Colombia's attempt to export its own civil war to Venezuela to eventually encourage a US intervention in the conflict, which could serve the interests of both Bush and Uribe regimes.

Saudi Arabia

Longtime US ally Saudi Arabia, OPEC member and home of over a quarter of the world's proven oil reserves, is undergoing a change in relationship with the US. According to the book Behind the Invasion of Iraq by the Research Unit for Political Economy, Saudi Arabia is "the United States' largest market for weapons, the largest supplier of oil to the United States (at a special discount to boot), and the source of up to $600 billion of investments in the United States." Through the Vinnell corporation the US is responsible for having trained the Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), which protects the Saudi royal family and protects oil fields, refineries and pipelines. The Saudi monarchy maintains control through an incredibly strict and repressive version of orthodox Islamic law that rejects most Western values, known as Wahhabi, while having a liberal policy towards economic and military cooperation with the US.

A recent visible step in the changing relationship between the two governments was seen at the end of April when US Secretary of Defense announced that he will withdraw all but a few hundred training personnel from the approximately 10,000 troops stationed in Saudi Arabia. From the point of view of the Saudi rulers, the removal of US troops will soothe growing hostilities among broad segments of the population. Rumsfeld has stated that the purpose of the move is to ease US tensions with the Muslim world, pointing out that the presence of US troops in the Islamic "holy land" was one of the major grievances by Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaeda network.

Tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia originated after it was discovered that 15 of the 19 September 11th suicide hijackers were Saudis. In an American court a $3 trillion lawsuit has been brought against several Saudi institutions and charities, as well as three members of the royal family, accusing them of funding terrorist groups. London's Financial Times reported on August 8, 2002 that the Saudis responded by withdrawing $200 billion from the US. As documented by reporter Greg Palast, the Bush administration made numerous efforts to block any investigation into the Saudi's involvement concerning the September 11 attacks. But this was before the US had established Central Command at a base in Qatar, and long before the US was occupying Iraq, giving them unconditional use of Iraq's military facilities and control over their oil. US policy towards Saudi Arabia is shifting towards the advice of a presentation given on June 10 by the RAND Corporation to the Defense Policy Board, entitled "Taking Saudi out of Arabia." The briefing called for the US to confront the House of Saud for its support of terrorism, using US troops to seize oil fields and eventually replacing the Saudi royal family with the Hashemite monarchy.

On May 13 it was reported by the Associated Press that prior to a visit from US Secretary of State Colin Powell, suicide bombers inside Riyadh, the Saudi capital, coordinated an attack that killed 10 Americans and dozens of others. Some of those targeted were Vinnell Corporation employees. Vinnell, which has been training the SANG since 1975, is a subsidiary of the second largest US weapons manufacturer, the Northrop Grumman Corporation. As William D. Hartung of the World Policy Institute writes, Vinnell's work in Saudi Arabia is an example of how "unaccountable private firms have become a central tool in US foreign policy. With Vinnell's assistance SANG forces have tripled to 75,000, and according to GlobalSecuity.org have included 25,000 tribal volunteers. It is believed al-Qaeda forces committed the attacks. Vinnell was also targeted by Islamic extremists in a November 1995 attack on the SANG headquarters.

These recent attacks may be an example of more to come as Islamist forces begin to stir in the Saudi Kingdom. In an attempt to stay in the US's good graces the Saudi's may try to hunt down Islamic militants. This may receive violent backlash from certain groups within the population, who desire to overthrow the Saudi government, which could lead to the possibility that SANG forces, with Vinnell's help, will attempt to purge the population of threats to the royal family.

The US is likely to respond one of four ways: The first is that they would do nothing and allow the chaos to weaken the Saudi monarchy. Another possibility is that they would support the SANG, either publicly or covertly, in their mission to protect the Saudi monarchy. The third possibility is the US will covertly sponsor an opposition group inside of Saudi Arabia. It is likely this group will come from disloyal members of the SANG that US intelligence has made good relations with through Vinnell. The final response to an outbreak of civil war within Saudi Arabia will be that the US will use it as justification to send troops, conveniently stationed in Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait, to secure Saudi oil fields.

Another way the US may help to bring about conflict is with the pressure applied on Saudi Arabia to sever their ties with Hamas and other Palestinian organizations. According to Asia Times "It is an open secret that personal funds of princes and individual donations by rich Saudi sheiks are the main source of finance for the Palestinian intifada." This would anger the population, giving them another reason to view the Saudi government as subservient to the US. Also interesting, according to an April 15, 2002 Oil and Gas International, is that some in Saudi Arabia have called for a switch to the euro as an "effective punishment for the United States, Israel's principal source of financial and political support."

Syria

The Bush administration has already compelled Syria to sever its links with the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad -- Palestinian groups responsible for attacks inside Israel. Syria has been accused by the US, over the last couple of months, of assisting the Iraqi military during the war, harboring escaped Iraqi officials, developing weapons of mass destruction and sponsoring terrorism. Since occupying Iraq, the US has cut off oil from Iraq into Syria. While some believe the US will invade Syria, it is not likely, since Syria has no oil. It is more likely the US will apply pressure on Syria to cancel all terrorist support, root out militants, and accommodate Israeli demands of giving up rights to a certain part of the occupied Golan Heights.

There will also be pressure applied by Washington for Syria to liberalize their economy, mainly because Israel wants to restart an oil pipeline that once transferred oil from Mosul, Iraq, passing through Syria into Haifa, Israel. According to an Asia Times article by Hooman Peimani, "regime change in both Iraq and Syria is the prerequisite for the project." The US has interests in the project and other pipelines from Iraq through Syria so they can ship oil out through the Mediterranean Sea, instead of the more distant and dangerous Persian Gulf.

North Korea

Another interesting detail in the current international relations crisis is that, according to a BBC report, North Korea the final country in the "axis of evil" effectively dropped the dollar, and began using euros for trade on December 7, 2002. Because North Korea has no oil and few exports, their switch will have little economic impact, but it does show the lack of success Bush's threats have had at making them compliant. Bush has placed North Korea in the "axis of evil," threatened to "preemptively" strike them with nuclear weapons, and cut off the food and oil aid that was part of an agreement made with President Clinton in 1994 to cease their nuclear weapons program. North Korea's response to this has been to restart development of nuclear weapons.

Some believe North Korea will be the next victim of US military aggression. This is not likely, considering North Korea's military strength and the risk involved for US allies South Korea and Japan. North Korea has more than a million-strong military and an arsenal stocked with missiles that could destroy much of Seoul or Tokyo. Many analysts believe that North Korea could have nuclear weapons built in months, if they don't already. Furthermore, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia all prefer for the situation to be handled diplomatically.