Works In Progress - June 2006

Despite the lofty rhetoric, the United States did not fight the Cold War against the tyranny of Communism. The former Soviet Union was a side issue for the United States. The primary targets and victims of the Cold War, both domestically and abroad, were democratic forces that could demonstrate that more inclusive social systems -- particularly economic and political - are possible. It was often the case, as in Central and South America, that United States sought to drive left-leaning political systems into the arms of the Soviets as a pretext for military invasion. For the most part, the Soviet Union, when it wasn't playing the role as the convenient boogeyman, was an annoying military buttress to the spread of American markets. With the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Berlin Wall at the end of the 1980s, the United States was freer to monopolize the world's resources, but it had new problems: no boogeyman to justify invasions and two strong forces still stood in the way of hegemony. Those two forces are democratic social movements, and "rogue states" -- nations that have refused, for whatever reason, to collaborate with American hegemony. Iran falls into this second group. It has committed the carnal sin of not taking direction from Washington; it trades oil and natural gas with US competitors and remains hostile to western influence. Again oil, the primary reason for the Iraq invasion, plays a crucial factor -- but oil in and of its self is not the reason why the United States is interested in Iran. The greatest "natural resource" up for exploitation in Iran is global positioning. Iran is crucial because the fate of the country will determine the future of US global dominance.

Iran has the second largest oil reserve in the world. Saudi Arabia is the first, and Iraq is the third. The US already has a secure relationship with Saudi Arabia, and is trying to secure itself in Iraq. The United States has had an intimate relationship with the Saudis since US corporations helped industrialize and westernize (in the terms of markets) the country throughout the 1970s and 1980s. In many ways, the US helps keep the Saudi royal family in power. As for Iraq, if everything goes as planned and Paul Bremer's "100 Orders" are fully instituted, US corporations will own the country while the Iraqi government will run it with US military oversight. Iran is the only nation out of the three that the US doesn't control, and it may be the most important out of the three. Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz where 40% of the world's oil exports pass through on a daily basis. In addition, Iran's oil is not well know. It has only been tapped recently, and much of the country's petroleum potential hasn't been explored. Ecology is finally catching-up with capitalist ingenuity. The prospects of hitting "peak oil" is a reality. Some estimate that oil consumption will increase by 50% in the next 20 years, while production capabilities may peak as early as 2010! Despite these predictions of petroleum calamity, oil remains a major staple of the global economy, and therefore a major determinate in global affairs. Currently, Iran is eager to trade its oil and has developed relations with many major countries in Asia -- including Japan, India, and China. Japan and China are of particular importance. Before the collapse of the Japanese economy, Japan asserted a tremendous amount of control over Asia, and was a becoming a major influence in global decision-making. From the late 1980s to mid 1990s, the two main economic entities which rival the United States were Europe, whose on-going unification has been an attempt to secure itself as an economic unit, and Japan. That all changed after the Japanese economy bubbled and burst. Now it is trying to regain lost ground -- and really doesn't care what Washington has to say about it. However, it still may be too little too late for Japan as China could turn out to be the more powerful nation to rise out of Asia. Since the opening of Chinese markets, the possibility of China being a major player - even a superpower -- has become a reality. China may be the only single nation with the population, military, and economic potential to rival US hegemony in the future. Much of this growth is directly related to trade relations with Iran. In 2003, Iran supplied 14% of China's oil imports. This percentage is expected to increase in the future. China also relies on Iran for a large shares of its liquid natural gas, and major Chinese and Japanese firms are doing big business around the oil economy in Iran.

Of course American corporations would love to get their hands on Iranian oil too, but they can't. In 1995, President Clinton signed Executive Order 12959. The order restricts US companies from doing business with Iran, and threatens to punish foreign firms for doing so too. The business deals of Japan and China, aren't making Washington happy. The United States has barred this business because it fears that trade with Iran will help make the country, and the anti-American mullahs who control it, stronger; and a strong anti-American country in the heart of a very volatile region is the last thing that the US wants.

That is also why the United States is trying to limit Iran's nuclear weapon capabilities. All the recent news coverage and discussion about Iran's nuclear weapon potential does have some truth to it. The country has been investigating nuclear energy potential with the possibility of developing nuclear weapons, and has refused or been extremely reluctant to open itself up to inspection. In September 2004, Iran rejected the International Atomic Energy Agency's call for closing down its nuclear fuel production -- which many people believed to be part of a greater program to develop nuclear weapons. In addition, Iran recently test-fired ballistic missile with enough range to hit Israel and US military bases. However, the accounts from some in the State Department are exaggeration and grossly misleading. First, the United States doesn't have a genuine concern about the proliferation of nuclear weapons. If it did, it would seek to disarm the country with most nuclear weapons in world and who is the only country to use nuclear weapons on another nation -- the US. Next, Iran nuclear weapon potential is no where near the capacity of eminent threat -- enough to warrant at least a rational justification for invasion. Lastly, the of goal of disarming Iran is not about protecting people, its about protecting nation-states. The United States fears that Iran will use its nuclear weapons against Israel or another nations who are allied with the US in the region. These attacks could destabilize the strong-hold that the US has built.

In short -- to protect both its economic and military interest, the United States needs to get rid of the present government in Iran, and institute one that will open-up the country to US corporations.

If the United States does attack Iran, it is not likely that the country will be able to defend itself. Compared to the massive might of the United States military, Iranian forces, (like most nations) are completely pathetic. It is likely that the country will experience a rapid take-over, or collapse into the mayhem that Iraq is unfortunately experiencing. However, there is another force beside the Iranian military that may be able to prevent another US war -- the democratic forces that have been the main target of US aggression. The benefit of supporting this force, instead of the Iranian military, is that it has a sincere dedication to peace through a radical transformation of social institutions. It has been the major target of the Cold War for a reason: in the end, it is the biggest threat to U.S. hegemony. The only real question is whether enough people will participate in these democratic forces before its too late.