The Iraqi civilian casualty number -- how many?

author : Janine Gates topic : Iraq occupation

by Janine Gates

Lots of numbers about Iraqi civilian deaths are thrown around. All the numbers are big, so it's hard to know what number is most accurate. Fifty thousand? One hundred thousand? Five hundred thousand? It depends on the source.

I used the number 650,000 in my article, "Lt. Watada speaks out in Olympia" in the February issue of Works in Progress. That number was used in a video about Iraq prior to Lt. Watada's speaking enagagement at South Puget Sound Community College (SPSCC) on January 31. The video said that an estimated 650,000 Iraqi civilians have died; however, the number was not attributed to any source.

After publication, I questioned the 650,000 figure. The figure especially bothered me after reading an article by Kathy Kelly, co-coordinator of Voices for Creative Nonviolence, published in the same Works in Progress issue. In her article, Kelly stated that, according to the United Nations, 700,000 Iraqi refugees have fled to Jordan since the war began. Another incredibly high number.

In an email, Kelly said the 650,000 figure is credible and suggested that I stay in touch with statistics offered by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (unhcr) at http://www.unhcr.org . She also referred me to the Johns Hopkins University study published by the British medical journal The Lancet, which put the Iraqi civilian death toll at 100,000 as of October 30, 2004.

David Hyde, sociologist at South Puget Sound Community College and the academic advisor for the organization that sponsored the Watada event, said the video came from a dvd called, Through the Eyes of Children: Iraq 2003.

I contacted David Lynn, a photojournalist and Vietnam veteran who lives in Union, Washington, whose company, Groundview Productions, made the video. A project sponsored by Pacifica Radio station kpfk, Los Angeles, and the International Human Shields Movement, the video is featured on Lynn's website, http://www.groundviewproductions.org .

The updated video at its end refers to the Johns Hopkins study, quoting, "Since the initial bombing and invasion of Iraq, over 100,000 civilians, mostly women and children, have died. -- Johns Hopkins University, Lancet 10-30-04."

A board member of The Humanitarian Law Project (hlp.home.igc.org), David Lynn has documented war zones in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chiapas, Mexico, and Iraq. Lynn, who just returned from six weeks in Eastern Chad, says he knows he "should update the dvd and the number of civilian deaths in Iraq . . . (At the time) when I made the video . . . it was soon after the first John Hopkins report of 100,000 came out."

Clarifying the source and date of the casualty figure as he did on his website is helpful. However, updating the casualty number may not be necessary, as the 650,000 figure may now be correct.

A second study released in October 2006 by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health now places the current casualty count at over 650,000 Iraqi civilian deaths. The study, based primarily on a country-wide household survey concluded in July 2006, is detailed at http://www.jhsph.edu/refugee/research/iraq .

Lynn agrees with the 650,000 figure. But what about all the other numbers?

"The number of civilian deaths in Iraq is a difficult one. First of all, the US military refuses to document such numbers. When I was there I saw many civilian bodies being buried where they fell without anyone documenting numbers or names," Lynn says. This activity is explored in the study, explaining that most Western reporters are based in Baghdad and there is a great deal of violence elsewhere.

As of March 24, the maximum casualty number, 65,246 comes from the website Iraq Body Count ( http://www.iraqbodycount.net ). Our local newspaper, The Olympian, uses this source, and its minimum count of 59,408, in its daily edition.

According to Lynn, Iraq Body Count relies only on deaths reported in the media. "This is very limited and mostly dependent on second hand accounts, since very few journalists are out in the field. The media relies on the Iraq government reports and whatever the US has to say, which both are of course skewed to their own public relations needs," Lynn says.

Lynn, who went to Vietnam as an 18-year-old Marine, says, "Civilian death tolls are bad public relations for the war effort. Therefore, don't rely on anything from the US. The US found out the hard way during Vietnam what such numbers can do to erode support."

Bottom line, there are a lot of Iraqi civilian deaths. How many? Too many.

Janine Gates is a freelance writer and photographer in Olympia, Washington. She can be reached through her website at http://www.janinegatesphotography.com .